Personal use of fuels is declining, but overall fuel demand remains strong, with diesel demand in the heavy-duty and transportation segment projected to increase 1 percent a year through 2050, according to ExxonMobil.
“We expect diesel demand to be 25 percent higher than it was in 2019 in the United States in 2050,” said Austin Johansen, commercial sales and marketing director for ExxonMobil, speaking at NATSO Connect 2020 in Orlando. “ExxonMobil is bullish on diesel. We’re investing significant amounts into this space.”
While worldwide personal vehicle energy demand peaks and declines by 2025 due to growing electrification and fuel efficiency, commercial transportation offsets that energy demand reduction as economic activity further increases and more goods and infrastructure are needed due to increased personal buying power, according to the Outlook. Overall global transportation energy demand is expected to grow by more than 20 percent by 2050.
Personal vehicle ownership is projected to grow as purchasing power rises. Higher efficiency and more electric vehicles lead to a peak and decline in light-duty vehicle energy demand in the mid-2020s.
In the Outlook, hypothetical scenarios of light-duty demand showed that if 100 percent of all new car sales were electric vehicles by 2035, then liquids demand could fall to 2010 levels by 2050. Alternatively, a slowdown in fuel efficiency improvement of internal combustion engines could increase fuel demand by almost 3 million barrels per day by 2050.
Johnsen said advancements in fuels are improving fuel economy and reducing emissions.
ExxonMobil’s Synergy Diesel Efficient was formulated to improve fuel economy by 2 percent and has an 11 percent reduction in NOX emissions out of the tailpipe. “It is a cleaner burn and delivers more power to the engine. All of this is driving savings to the fleet,” Johansen said, adding that there are now 126 terminals with Synergy Diesel Efficient.
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